Who is going to turn Pakistan round?
May 22nd, 2011I could hear the call to Prayer tonight before dinner as I read Henry Kissinger saying in the FT to Simon Schama that South Asia could become the Balkans of the next decade – with nuclear weapons. Mmmm…
As I said on the Marr show, the country feels – as it has been said to me – bruised, abused, and confused. The cliché of Pakistan on the edge has been used too many times. But the soul searching and self doubt is real. For example it now pervades the army in a way unprecedented since Bangladesh achieved independence in the early 1970s. The one institution that has always been held up as the strongest institution in Pakistan now has popular – and internal – fire turned in its direction (not as much as is turned on the US, but striking nonetheless). It is not just bin Laden.
Wikileaks showed a ruling elite that said one thing to other countries and one thing to its own people – and in the modern world that gets found out. The purchase of 50 ‘Thunder’ jets from China – announced on PM Gilani’s visit there over the last few days – is not going to turn the country round; in fact it is part of the unbalanced growth, putting the security state before the welfare state (including economic development), that plagues the country.
It is obvious what is the scenario for gloom – economic weakness, corruption, energy shortage, rising radicalisation, an unequal social structure, political bickering…. So I asked the dinner guests tonight for what are grounds for hope. Here are some of their answers.
1. The rural economy. There isn’t yet trickle down from high commodity prices, but there is optimism. The government figures don’t yet show it, but I met dairy farmers as well as investors talking about how the rise in commodity prices had spurred an “infusion” of wealth into rural areas.
2. Education. This is a country where a generation of young people, including young women, could break some of the sterile thinking of older generations. And the crisis in primary education is now much better recognised. The UK/Pakistan Education Commission that we started in government is getting fulsome support from the new British government, and could become a vehicle for tackling for the first time chronic under-education – nearly fifty per cent of kids not going to primary school.
3. Democratic, civilian rule is better entrenched, (and the army doesn’t seem to want to take over). Argumentative politicians don’t inspire the public, but they are better arguing than in jail.
4. New realism on Afghanistan. I think the Pakistan leadership understand that a client state in Afghanistan is not an option, and there is a chance that they could end up being helpful to the search for a political settlement in Afghanistan that President Obama committed himself to in his interview yesterday.
5. China. For their own reasons, economic and geostrategic, the Chinese are big supporters (and not just for arms sales).
6. Media. Well, there were some journalists there tonight, so you’d expect it, but they have got a point. The media is competitive and intrusive (and conspiracy-obsessed) but it is a big bulwark against dictatorship.
7. Business mobilising. The business community is starting to get its voice heard, through the initiative of the Pakistan Business Council, getting the politicians to sign up to a sensible agenda.
8. Trade…is so restricted, to Europe, to America (even more), to India (even more again), that it can only go in one direction. Opening up markets would dwarf aid flows.
9. Errr…that’s it.
This would be a very hard country for anyone to govern. History matters, and some of the history is not pretty. But one lesson of history is that outside influence makes a huge difference for good or ill…we need to be a force for good. That will take transparency, rigour, and some patience as well as tough love. It’s very important we do it properly. And as I sign off, there are reports of an attack on the Karachi naval barracks. Makes the point.